Modelled altitudinal vegetation belts for 2085 with dry future climate

This map shows the altitudinal vegetation belts of forest vegetation in Switzerland for the period 2070-2099 assuming a dry future climate. The following altitudinal vegetation belts only occur in the southern valleys: «mediterranean», «hyperinsubric», «colline with beech», and «lower/upper montane». The map «Modelled altitudinal vegetation belts for 1995» serves as a basis for the shift of the altitudinal vegetation belts into the future. Among the representative concentration pathways, RCP 8.5 with the model combination CLMCOM-CCLM5_HADGEM_EUR44 was selected as a «dry» model (NCCS 2018). This model projects an average warming of 4.4 °C (northern and southern Switzerland) and a reduction in precipitation of 17.0% (northern Switzerland) or 24.9% (southern Switzerland) for the months April-August, which are considered most relevant for the climate suitability of trees, compared to the period 1981-2010 (Remund 2020). The natural upper timberline was also modelled using an analogous procedure (Könz et al. 2021). --- Source: Zischg et al. (subm.)